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Module 07 · Advanced · bullion research

Gold: market structure and portfolio risk

OTC and exchange architecture, forward carry, rupee parity, positioning, volatility and a fully reconciled bullion risk memo.

17 chapters · Concepts, worked examples and self-checks

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Helpful first: Market foundations · Futures · Options · Macroeconomics · Margin rules and funding

Bullion research desk · Updated 2026-10-24

From the first question to a defensible decision.

Understand the instrument, read the evidence, build the countercase and test the cash risk. Work through 17 chapters with examples, self-checks and research assignments.

Start here. Then go deeper.

What you should be able to do

Map the legal claim, location and funding path
Reconcile carry, FX, flow and volatility exposures
Defend a committee-ready risk memo
Separate an investment thesis from a technical execution plan

Your working papers

Download CSV templates for your spreadsheet. Keep original sources and dates; examples are fictional and blank fields require your research.

Bullion pricing and curve workbook Metal flow and evidence ledger Hedge and liquidity stress sheet Macro, COT and forecast research ledger

Historical evidence and forecasts are dated, not live calls. Institution names identify sources, not course endorsements.

Study it. Test it. Write it down.

International gold and your rupee price are different layers

Which part of the price move came from metal, currency or the local wrapper?

Ignore costs and basis for a moment. If a hypothetical dollar gold price rises 5% while USD/INR falls 3%, the rupee metal proxy changes by 1.05 × 0.97 − 1 = 1.85%, not 8% or exactly 2%. A physical retail quote adds purity, local premiums, fabrication and applicable taxes. An ETF, a coin and a delivery contract have different costs and claims even when each is described as “gold.”

Your research task

Write the quotation unit and fineness. Convert troy ounces, grams and the relevant purity consistently before comparing quotations.
Separate the international price, exchange rate, local premium and product costs. Do not label a customs valuation-base revision a guaranteed matching move in the retail gold price.
Compare purchase and exit terms for the actual wrapper, including custody, tracking, liquidity and delivery obligations where relevant.

What you should produce

Build a rupee-price bridge with each assumption entered separately. Recalculate it for a stronger rupee and a higher local premium.

The trap to avoid: Reading a geopolitical headline and assuming gold must move in one direction regardless of dollar, yields, liquidity and expectations.

Original hypothetical study exercise. Pair it with the chapter sources below; verify current contract rules and product terms separately.

Chapters in this module

0 of 17 completed on this browser

01What drives gold prices?Connect global prices, currency, real rates, demand and local market frictions without assuming a single reliable forecasting signal.4 min read 02Purity, troy ounces and landed-price arithmeticConvert metal content and quote units carefully, and distinguish a parity estimate from an executable retail price.4 min read 03Physical gold, ETFs and other wrappersCompare the economic exposure, custody arrangement and costs of different ways of holding a gold-related claim.4 min read 04Gold futures, quote multipliers and tender riskStudy a bullion contract as a defined obligation, including quote units, tick value and the delivery calendar.4 min read 05OTC gold, exchange futures and location basisMap London unallocated claims, bar allocation, exchange warrants and EFP transactions before comparing prices across venues.3 min read 06Gold forwards, lease economics and the carry curveSeparate observed forward carry, a financing model and the residual costs of actually holding or borrowing deliverable metal.3 min read 07Gold flows, positioning and point-in-time researchReconcile ETF metal holdings, fund value, vault stocks and positioning without double counting or using information before publication.3 min read 08Gold volatility surfaces and scenario riskAnalyse the underlying contract, implied-volatility surface and dynamic hedge exposure rather than one delta or one premium.3 min read 09Gold portfolio attribution and hedge constructionSeparate metal, FX, basis, carry and execution contributions, then choose a hedge against the stated liability.3 min read 10Gold research committee: from evidence to a risk memoTurn a bullish or bearish story into a documented research decision with scenarios, counterevidence and implementation gates.3 min read 11Gold through an investor lens: thesis, opportunity cost and capital allocationBuild a long-horizon gold thesis with a countercase, a suitable holding structure and rules that stay separate from a tactical trade.4 min read 12Gold technical execution: regime, volatility and multi-timeframe confirmationConvert a gold thesis into an observable technical research plan with completed bars, volatility-normalised risk and a separate instrument model.4 min read 13The Fed from first principles: policy, expectations and bullionUnderstand what the Federal Reserve does before turning an interest-rate headline into a gold or silver position.3 min read 14CPI, PCE, payrolls and the release calendar: read the whole printRead inflation and activity releases with units, revisions, expectations and market timing rather than reacting to a single headline.3 min read 15Dollar, real yields and oil: build a 2022–2025 macro casebookUse dated macro evidence and explicit currency attribution to understand why relationships between metals and other markets change.4 min read 16COT report workshop: positions, crowding and the information clockRead Commitments of Traders from the basics through position normalization, changes and point-in-time strategy testing.3 min read 17Bank forecasts without hero worship: a dated analyst research labRead J.P. Morgan, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo material without mixing teams, horizons or secondary reporting with an original note.4 min read

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