Module 08 · Advanced · metals research

Silver: physical flows and relative value

Industrial demand, inventory accessibility, curve dislocations, cross-hedging, volatility and a falsifiable silver research book.

16 chapters · Concepts, worked examples and self-checks

Start first chapter →

Helpful first: Gold: market structure and portfolio risk · Futures · Options · Macroeconomics · Margin rules and funding

Bullion research desk · Updated 2026-10-24

From the first question to a defensible decision.

Understand the instrument, read the evidence, build the countercase and test the cash risk. Work through 16 chapters with examples, self-checks and research assignments.

Start here. Then go deeper.

What you should be able to do

Reconcile demand, intensity and accessible stocks
Size cross-hedges and test model instability
Defend a physical-market thesis under funding stress
Separate an investment thesis from a technical execution plan

Your working papers

Download CSV templates for your spreadsheet. Keep original sources and dates; examples are fictional and blank fields require your research.

Bullion pricing and curve workbook Metal flow and evidence ledger Hedge and liquidity stress sheet Macro, COT and forecast research ledger

Historical evidence and forecasts are dated, not live calls. Institution names identify sources, not course endorsements.

Study it. Test it. Write it down.

A “cheap” ratio is not a complete trade

What exactly is the relative-value position, including its legs?

A hypothetical gold–silver ratio falls from 100 to 90. That alone does not say whether silver rose, gold fell or both changed. If gold stays at 100 and silver moves from 1 to 1.111…, the ratio reaches 90. If silver stays at 1 and gold falls to 90, it also reaches 90. A leveraged two-leg position has funding and sizing consequences that the ratio chart does not show.

Your research task

Use compatible price units, currency and observation times. Mixing gold per 10 grams with silver per kilogram without conversion creates a meaningless ratio.
Specify notional amounts, contract multipliers and currency exposure for both legs. Matching the number of lots rarely means matching value exposure.
Distinguish physical demand evidence, inventory observations and a directional interpretation. A demand narrative does not determine the next futures expiry price.

What you should produce

Write two different paths that generate the same ratio change. Calculate both legs’ hypothetical P&L and margin funding under each path.

The trap to avoid: Calling a historically high ratio a timing signal without a mechanism, a holding-period assumption or a limit to the adverse spread move.

Original hypothetical study exercise. Pair it with the chapter sources below; verify current contract rules and product terms separately.

Chapters in this module

0 of 16 completed on this browser

01Silver demand, supply and volatilityUnderstand why silver combines industrial and investment drivers and need not move like a smaller version of gold.4 min read 02Silver quotation units and contract sizingConvert per-kilogram quotes into lot exposure, point value and a realistic comparison between contract variants.3 min read 03Gold–silver ratio and relative-price riskCalculate a dimensionally consistent ratio and understand why a historical relationship need not revert on a useful schedule.3 min read 04Silver delivery, storage and commercial hedgesUnderstand why delivery terms, quality, location and cash-flow timing matter alongside the metal’s financial price.4 min read 05Silver supply balances, industrial intensity and demand revisionsBuild a transparent stock-flow model and stress industrial intensity instead of converting an annual deficit into a price target.3 min read 06Silver inventories, warrants and accessible floatSeparate the physical stock count, location, ownership, warrant status and willingness to sell before arguing that a market is tight.3 min read 07Silver curve dislocations, storage and location spreadsInvestigate whether a curve or venue spread reflects financing, storage, scarce deliverable metal or mismatched data.3 min read 08Silver cross-hedging, ratio risk and hedge-ratio instabilityChoose physical, value or statistical hedge ratios deliberately, and test their out-of-sample behaviour.3 min read 09Silver options, convexity and liquidity stressEvaluate volatility assumptions, finite price moves and option-to-futures transitions in a market where execution can dominate a paper model.3 min read 10Silver research committee: a physical story under stressBuild a decision memo that reconciles industrial activity, inventory, positioning, curve and implementation before selecting an exposure.3 min read 11Silver through an investor lens: cycle economics and the valuation questionBuild a patient investment thesis without confusing metal exposure, a mining business and a leveraged trading contract.3 min read 12Silver technical execution: failed breaks, relative strength and volatilityStudy price structure and volume in a volatile metal while keeping the gold relationship, timing and cash risk explicit.4 min read 13Delivery Intentions Report: issues, stops and what a notice actually meansRead exchange delivery reports without confusing title transfer, warehouse movement, client identity and a physical shortage.3 min read 14Silver industrial usage: solar, electronics, AI and the intensity bridgeMap end uses and read real industrial-demand estimates without turning every AI or solar headline into a price target.3 min read 15Search interest and popular silver questions: measure attention properlyUse search data as an attention proxy, answer practical investor questions and avoid inventing most-searched rankings.3 min read 16Silver event desk: combine Fed, growth, positioning and technical executionIntegrate the reports into a realistic decision process without pretending that more indicators automatically create an edge.3 min read

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