Chapter 13 of 16

Delivery Intentions Report: issues, stops and what a notice actually means

Read exchange delivery reports without confusing title transfer, warehouse movement, client identity and a physical shortage.

3 min read · Original educational chapter

In this chapter

Start by identifying the report and exchange
Issues and stops are opposite sides of delivery activity
A notice is not automatically a truck leaving a vault
Define the denominator before using a dramatic ratio
Build a falsifiable tightness investigation
Worked example
Common mistakes
Check your understanding
Desk assignment

Start by identifying the report and exchange #

Delivery Intentions Report is a phrase often used in market commentary, but report names and procedures differ across exchanges. CME publishes delivery notices including NYMEX/COMEX daily, monthly and yearly issues and stops. MCX has its own delivery procedures and operative circulars.

Before interpretation, record exchange, product, contract month, report business date, delivery date, contract size and unit. Do not use one exchange’s timeline or warehouse rules as if they governed another. A screenshot missing its header is incomplete evidence.

Issues and stops are opposite sides of delivery activity #

In delivery reporting, an issue represents the tendering side and a stop the receiving side. These are clearing/delivery records, not a list of every spot consumer. Read house/customer designations under the report legend.

A clearing firm’s name can appear on behalf of customer activity. It does not prove that the named bank made an unhedged proprietary bet. The report alone cannot reveal the ultimate beneficial owner, motivation, off-exchange hedge or intended holding period.

A notice is not automatically a truck leaving a vault #

Delivery can involve transfer of title through the relevant warrant or delivery mechanism. Physical withdrawal is a separate event requiring separate evidence. Daily notices, cumulative notices and warehouse stocks are different measures.

Do not add a cumulative monthly column to its daily components. Do not subtract every delivery notice from registered inventory as though metal necessarily left the warehouse. Reconcile deposits, withdrawals, reclassifications and timing before asserting a stock change.

Define the denominator before using a dramatic ratio #

Compare contract-equivalent ounces with a clearly dated stock perimeter, but recognise that notices are flows and stocks are a snapshot. Eligible, registered, total exchange stocks and London holdings are not interchangeable. Availability for sale cannot be assumed from gross holdings.

A large ratio can motivate research into delivery concentration, location and financing. It is not by itself a probability of default or proof of manipulation. A small ratio does not guarantee ample freely available metal either.

Build a falsifiable tightness investigation #

Check nearby/deferred spreads, lease or financing indications, local premiums, inventory movements, logistics and current exchange notices. Align observation dates. Ask whether the pattern is location-specific, seasonal or associated with contract expiry.

For an Indian trade, add local basis, funding and delivery eligibility. An interesting COMEX title-transfer pattern is not a complete MCX entry signal. Establish execution, invalidation and no-trade criteria separately, and do not hold into obligations your account cannot fulfil.

Hypothetical worked example

A fictional notice and stock reconciliation

A fictional contract has 5,000 ounces per lot. A daily notice count of 200 represents 1 million contract-equivalent ounces of delivery activity. If the month-to-date total is 700 including that day, it is 3.5 million ounces, not 4.5 million.

Suppose registered stocks remain 10 million ounces with no withdrawal entry. The notice report alone does not justify marking warehouse holdings down to 9 million. Look for the separate movement and classification records.

Common mistakes

Claiming a named clearing firm proves a proprietary bank bet.
Counting daily and cumulative notices twice.
Equating every delivery with a physical withdrawal.

Check your understanding

What does a bank name in a delivery report prove by itself?

Make this chapter useful

Can you defend the reasoning?

Before moving on, answer the self-check in your own words and write why each alternative fails. Use the worked example to test that explanation. Then apply it in the module research task; keep the assumptions and the evidence that could change your answer.

Desk assignment

What to submit

Annotate an actual report header and legend, reconcile daily/cumulative counts and make a separate stock-movement table; mark unknown ownership and motives.

Use the research ledger for dated evidence, or the module workbooks for calculations. Separate observations, assumptions and interpretation.

Sources and further reading

Further-reading references from the curriculum source list. Contract sizes, expiry calendars, settlement references, margin parameters and tax treatment can change; verify the current operative documents for the actual product. Worked figures are illustrative, not current quotes.

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